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Module 4.4.2 Identifying and explaining trends
5 Once you have developed potential indicators, and have collected relevant data, it is possible to begin

to analyse those data to identify and demonstrate trends. Readers with little or no experience with
indicator development and data collection are encouraged to take time now to review Module 4 on
Data and Indicators.
9-12 December, 2013 of the analysis. Beneath this high level integrated story are other stories more intimate in detail, which help us
The integrated story, illustrating causality among key drivers and environmental states is just the outer layer

better understand what is happening to the environment and why. Getting to this next layer of information
requires analysing the indicator to identify correlations, and to explain key temporal and spatial patterns.

A good place to start is the analysis of the state indicator to get to the core of the issue. The example
below illustrates such an analysis for automobile fuel efficiency.

Example

CASE EXAMPLE: Advanced
Identifying and explaining trends consumption of Ozone depleting substances in
the Arab Region.

The ozone layer shields people and plants from the harmful ultraviolet radiation, which
causes skin cancer and cataracts in people, stunts growth in plants, including food crops, and
kills the tiny organisms which form the base of the marine and terrestrial food chain. The

ozone layer is threatened by the production of the Chloroflouro Carbons (CFCs).

In terms of commitments to global environmental initiatives, most have ratified or acceded
to the Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol to limit the use and emission of O 3
depleting substances as well as the United Nations Convention on Climate Change.

Data about O depleting substance are shown in figure 12. It is obvious that the countries
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of the sub-region have taken measures to regulate, reduce and even eliminate emission of
O depleting substances. Egypt has had the lead to take measures. In 1993, 80% of the foam
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industries were implementing a strategy to utilize substitute. The country has successfully used

46 Integrated Analysis of Environmental Trends and Policies