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Module Assessing policy responses
2 The assessment of policies can either be integrated with or separated from the SoE analysis. Both

approaches have their strengths and advantages: separating the two sections leads to a more disjointed

report where environmental state issues and their underlying policy causes are discussed separately;
on the other hand, discussing policy responses together in one section may lead to a more coherent
9-12 December, 2013 Policy analysis is a conceptually complex area and often requires either the collaboration of science-
comparative analysis.

based or policy experts or experts well versed in analyzing environmental issues on the interface
of science and policy. From the substantive point of view policy analysis involves the identification
of public or private sector policy drivers that contributed to earlier demonstrated environmental
change and assessing their effectiveness. It may also involve pointing out policy gaps. In order to help
identify relevant policies Module 5 provides a general typology and further detail on the methodology
of policy analysis.

Analyzing the impacts of environmental change

Analyzing the impacts of environmental change has gained increasing prominence in UNEP’s GEO-4
report. Analyzing environmental impacts requires identifying changes in socio-economic or ecological
conditions that are significantly influenced by changes in the state of the environment.

Typically, the observed impacts are a result of multiple forces of change, some short term and local,
others long term and global and everything in-between. You will need to both scan a wide range of
impacts and then select priorities to concentrate the analysis on. This will also require consultations
in the scoping and more detailed analytic stage. You will also need to remember to try and separate
or at least identify cases where impacts are caused or significantly influenced by non-human induced

pressures, such as natural disasters.

Further methodological detail on analyzing impacts of environmental change is provided in Module 5.

Policy options and scenarios

Scenario analysis is an essential signature component of IEAs and outlooks. The scenario section builds

on SoE and policy analysis and tried to answer these questions: where are we heading; what actions
could be taken for a more sustainable future? This can help with long-term planning, and can support
applying the precautionary approach to specific issues. By exploring possible future scenarios, decision-
makers can get a clearer picture of what tomorrow might bring, and what the impact of alternative
decisions is likely to be.

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