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Scenario analysis usually combines quantitative and qualitative elements. The quantitative component Module
requires modelling and may directly build on data and indicators. The qualitative component involves
creating and refining descriptive narratives. These two sides of scenario analysis require different 2

methods and skills and a process that helps combine them in coherent scenarios. The process usually
involves several iterations of interaction among stakeholders, thematic experts and a core group of
‘integrators’, scenario experts who create the actual scenarios. In cases where capacity for quantitative
modelling is limited, countries used only scenario narratives that may be still useful to explore
alternative future trajectories and their policy implications in a series of facilitated conversations with Abu Dhabi, UAE

participants.

Details of the scenario process are described in Module 6.

Conclusions and recommendations
Preparing recommendations is the final analytic stage of the IEA process, but whether it is required

depends on a particular country, in some cases the task of formulating policy options is seen as the
realm of the policy process, and decision makers may explicitly request that the IEA does not produce
recommendations. However, there are also many examples in the past where recommendations
were explicitly requested and were even included in the IEA mandate.

Formulating recommendations builds on all earlier IEA stages, and requires the participation
of senior or high level policymakers who may not have been directly involved in earlier stages
of the assessment. The technical team may be requested to prepare draft recommendations
that then become a starting point for a dialogue, leading to a final set. In order to be effective,

recommendations would ideally be connected with strategic policy processes, such as budgeting
or long-term strategic planning.

For further details of the scenario concept and process please see Module 6.

3.5.6 Stage 6: Communication and outreach

While communication is indicated as a stage that comes once the content of the assessment has
been finalized it is actually something that needs to start as early as the setup stage. A unique and

powerful aspect of the global GEO process many sub-global iterations is that communication with
potential audiences runs parallel with developing content. While products of the assessment are
important in conveying key findings, interactions between experts and policymakers throughout the
process provide many opportunities for conveying key assumptions, concerns or questions. In this
sense, communication is not a ‘stage’ but an ongoing activity running parallel to the IEA.

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