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Module The world is likely to see “a rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century...that
3 is greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years.”

This straightforward message was by most accounts, very influential in catalyzing the decision making
process, which eventually led to the signing of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in
1992 (Agrawala 1997).
9-12 December, 2013 you seek to position your findings in light of other competing or comparable public and political interests.

Also, keep in mind what you have learned about “issue cycles,” recognizing that timing is important as

The development of scenarios based on the findings presents another type of opportunity to engage

key target decision-makers. Scenarios help decision-makers deal with uncertainties, and provide options
for action. The value of scenarios in helping decision-makers to buy into, and act on, your findings is
discussed further in Module 6.

3.2.5 Step 5: Monitoring, evaluation and improvement

We know that in most work involving information processes and products, causality is difficult to
demonstrate. But it is possible to look at incremental changes in attitudes, actions, and behaviours
that are a direct outcome of one’s work (Earle et al. 2001). Monitoring, evaluation and learning
mechanisms should be in place to identify and map these incremental changes that will lead towards
the decisions or changes sought, and to adjust the strategy if necessary.

Naturally, you are going to want to know whether your strategy is working. But, sometimes the
signals that you are having real influence seem small and insignificant. These quiet signals will be the
incremental changes in attitudes, actions and behaviours that are a direct outcome of your work.
Monitoring and assessment mechanisms must be in place to identify and map these incremental
changes that will lead towards the decisions or changes you are seeking. This can be a time intensive

process, so it is a good idea to identify some key indicators, and set up simple ways to monitor your
strategy against those indicators.

Important behaviour changes of your “target actors” (those you are seeking to influence) could
be reflected in a progression from passively receiving information from the assessment, all the way

through to acting on recommendations and demanding more work. The following would be a good
checklist:

? Receiving information
* IEA process leaders sending information to target actors.
* IEA process leaders using media to communicate to target actors.

24 Developing an Impact Strategy for your IEA