Page 4 - Module_6_en

Module
6 Table of Contents

List of Acronyms 3
9-12 December, 2013 Course Materials 6
Overview
4

1. Introduction and learning objectives
6
8
2. What is a scenario?
3. A very short history of scenario development

10
4. Examples of scenario exercises 10
4.1 Short-term country scenarios - Mont Fleur 10

4.2 Medium-term regional and global scenarios - The UNEP GEO-3/GEO-4 14
Scenarios

4.3 Long term global scenarios - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 20
(IPCC)
5. The purpose, process and substance of scenarios and scenario exercises 22

6. Policy analysis 25
7. Developing scenarios - A complete process 30

7.1 Clarifying the purpose and structure of the scenario exercise 34
7.2 Laying the foundation for the scenarios 42

7.3 Developing and testing the actual scenarios 50
7.4 Communication and outreach 55

References 56

2 Scenario Development and Analysis