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and scenario content. Goals might include raising awareness, stimulating creative thinking and gaining Module
insight into the way societal processes influence one another. An overriding goal is usually to directly or
indirectly support decision making. Process design addresses aspects such as scope and depth of the 6

analysis, the degree of quantitative and qualitative data used, and choices among stakeholder workshops,
expert interviews or desk research. Scenario content focuses on composition of the scenarios (i.e., on
the variables and dynamics in a scenario and how they interconnect). While many different processes

have been used to develop and analyse scenarios, most involve steps similar to ones used in this module,
although emphasis on particular steps varies. The steps used in this module are grouped as follows:

Clarifying the Purpose and Structure of the Scenario Exercise
1. Establishing the nature and scope of the scenarios.
2. Identifying stakeholders and selecting participants. 9-12 December, 2013 - Abu Dhabi, UAE

3. Identifying themes, targets, indicators and potential policies.

Laying the Foundation for the Scenarios
4. Identifying drivers.
5. Selecting critical uncertainties.

6. Creating a scenario framework.

Developing and Testing the Actual Scenarios
7. Elaborating the scenario narratives.
8. Undertaking the quantitative analysis.

9. Exploring policy.

Communication and Outreach

A full scenario process would ideally involve going through each of the above steps. In many cases,
however, the scenario development will be nested within an overall integrated environmental

assessment and reporting process. Thus, to the extent possible, the scenario development should
be pursued in concert with the other components of this process, such as those described in
Modules 4 and 5 of this training manual. Furthermore, many times, particularly in a national-
scale GEO-type process, we avoid developing completely new scenarios. Instead, scenarios at the

national level are developed based on existing scenarios at a higher level (e.g., global and regional
scenarios developed for GEO). This adoption and adaptation facilitates scenario development by
providing the core information needed in the process, but can present significant challenges in
terms of methodology and credibility of the results.

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 5