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Module Course Materials
6 1 Introduction and learning objectives

9-12 December, 2013 Module 5 of the workbook focuses on assessments of the state of the environment (SoE)

and trends. In Module 6, we address the fourth and fifth steps shown below (Figure 1).

Key questions to be answered by SoE analysis and policy
Figure 1
assessmnet in the iea framework.

5 What actions could be taken for
a more sustainable future?
4 Where are we heading?

3 What is being done and how effective is it?

2 What are the consequences for the environment
and humanity?

1 What is happening to the environment and why?

This module shows you how to develop scenarios and analyse them in terms of the
impact they could have on existing policies or the kinds of policies that would be needed
in order for a particular scenario to unfold. The module provides the basis for an entire

process for developing and analysing scenarios.

The module begins with an introduction to what scenarios are (and are not), and provides
details on particular aspects of scenarios and their development. Depending on the primary
purpose of the scenario exercise, the form, content and process of your scenario(s) will

6 Scenario Development and Analysis