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differ. A brief summary of the scenario development literature and a few examples are presented. This is Module
followed by a section that addresses more specifically how scenario development and assessment can
be used to address policy issues. We then provide step-by-step guidance on one approach to scenario 6
development, noting where this might need to be modified for other purposes. Recognizing that national
and regional scenario development will often build on existing scenarios rather than start from scratch,

we provide guidance on how this can be done. Finally, the module concludes with a section focused on
the importance of communication and outreach as part of a scenario exercise.

After using the material presented in this training module you will: Abu Dhabi, UAE

? be familiar with the types of scenarios;

? have developed an understanding of the structure, complexity and dynamics of scenario processes;
? be familiar with the steps required for the development of scenarios; and

? understand how scenarios can be used for the discussion and development of policy options.

The success of a scenario process depends crucially on excellent facilitation. Scenario development and

analysis is a demanding process, although we have tried to make it as easy as possible by presenting one
step-by-step process.

EXERCISE

Think of a time when you have imagined different future possibilities to help you solve a
problem in your everyday life.

Take five minutes to write a brief summary focusing on the following questions:
? What was the situation, and what were the future possibilities?

? Were there key uncertainties on which the future depended?
? What information did you have to help you make your decision or prepare for the future?

? How did you think through this problem?

Take two minutes to share your thoughts with your neighbour.

Discussion in plenary.

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 7