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Module The group developed a narrative for each of these stories. A 14-page report was included as a
6 supplement in a national newspaper, and a 30-minute video was produced. Furthermore, the scenarios

were directly presented to more than 50 groups.

The Mont Fleur scenarios were not in themselves novel. The remarkable thing about the exercise
was the involvement of such a heterogeneous group of important people developing and delivering
9-12 December, 2013 The scenarios were broadly understood and discussed in many circles. Through this process, it
the message.

became clear that Flamingo was a feasible and broadly desirable outcome, although some of the
decisions it implied were not in line with those that might have been proposed by some of the
parties at the start of the exercise. Thus, the informal process of producing the Mont Fleur scenarios
produced substantive messages, informal networks and changes in thinking about the challenges that

the country faced.

A key lesson learned through the Mont Fleur process is that a successful scenario effort must
be credible, informal, reflective and inclusive. The team needs to be respected, open-minded and
representative of all of the important perspectives on the issues at hand.

BOX 1 The GCC and the World: Scenarios to 2025

The World Economic Forum developed a regional scenario study for the Gulf Cooperation

Council (GCC) countries, titled “The GCC Countries and the World: Scenarios to 2025”.
The study lasted 18 months and involved over 300 experts from the Gulf countries and
beyond. The study outlines three scenarios for the development of the GCC region from
2007 to 2025.

“Over the next 20 years the region will continue to draw the world’s attention not just
in terms of energy security, but also due to its fast-growing capital markets and innovative
cities. The world needs to anticipate what forces may throw the region off track, and what
opportunities exist to help the GCC countries and the broader Middle East region exceed
our expectations,” noted Nicholas Davis, who co-managed the project with Chiemi Hayashi
as Global Leadership Fellows at the World Economic Forum.

12 Scenario Development and Analysis