Page 15 - Module_6_en

Module

The scenarios are a result of a multi-stakeholder project involving participants and entities 6
from the private, public and non-governmental spheres. The research team led by the World
Economic Forum, in partnership with the Economic Development Board of Bahrain, the
Executive Affairs Authority of Abu Dhabi and Olayan Financing Company of Saudi Arabia,
asked two key questions concerning the GCC’s future:

1. Will leaders in the GCC countries be able to successfully implement the necessary and

relevant economic and political reforms and enforce the rule of law, both in public and Abu Dhabi, UAE
in private governance?

2. Will GCC countries be able to maintain internal order and stability, in particular vis-à-
vis a complex and uncertain regional situation?
The report presents three possible scenarios for the region over the next twenty years:
‘Oasis’, ‘Sandstorm’ and ‘The Fertile Gulf’:

Oasis, describes a scenario where regional stability continues to be a challenge for the
GCC countries, which are nevertheless able to achieve substantial institutional reforms. The
GCC countries develop strong identities and work together to coordinate diplomatic and
economic policies through technocratic governance and a stronger internal market.

Sandstorm describes a future where regional instability is the defining factor that affects the
ability of GCC countries to effectively carry out necessary institutional reforms. This scenario
sees a number of conflating factors that make the surround region significantly turbulent,
including conflict between the US and Iran and spillover of violence from Iraq.

The Fertile Gulf describes the rise of the GCC countries as innovation hubs in a global
environment characterized by robust demand for energy and increasing globalization.
Regional stability gives the GCC countries the opportunity to focus on enhancing their
human capital at all levels, investing heavily in education while proceeding carefully with
political and institutional reforms to support their growing economies and societies.

Additionally, the scenarios also consider in detail the role, impact and key national drivers
affecting the future of the Kingdom of Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom
of Saudi Arabia, which will be released in separate reports.

The executive summary and the full report can be downloaded from the World Economic
Forum site at: http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/Scenarios/GCCScenarios/index.htm.

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 13