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Module
6 The destruction rate of habitats and ecosystems is greatly reduced by the implementation

of appropriate land-use management plans and the adoption of effective laws to protect
biodiversity.

In the “Policy First” scenario, environment is assigned higher priority compared to that in
9-12 December, 2013 the “Markets First”. It envisions great improvements to human well-being and a decrease in

environmental degradation. Furthermore, strong and coordinated government interventions
and actions are exerted to achieve greater social equity. Environmental protection leads to
a decrease in environmental degradation and improvement in human well-being. However,

environmental pressures stemming from investment policies continue to be high.

Security First (Devolution/decadence)
This scenario assumes that the current instability in the region intensifies in the future and
that global security continues to deteriorate as well. Foreign pressure and interests in the
Arab region’s strategic resources have the potential to bring about further destabilization,
rising tension or even war. The conflicts that exist in the Occupied Palestinian Territories
(OPT), Iraq, Somalia and Darfur continue to play a major role in regional instability, with spill-

over effects that negatively impact the region and beyond.

Under this scenario, the region experiences deep socio-economic disparities and political
turmoil that lead to authoritarian “solutions” by the elite, such as military coups, imposing
emergency laws, and creating dictatorships. As a result, the region experiences intensified
environmental and natural resources degradation, which eventually leads to even greater
social and economic disparity, religious retreat and extremism, and finally intra- and inter-
country conflicts.

In the “Security First” scenario, considered by many in the Arab Region as an extreme case of
“Markets First”, national and regional political tensions and conflicts remain unresolved in the
long-term and continue to be a major driving force that negatively impacts the region’s overall
development. This eventually leads to further disintegration of the social and economic fabric
of the region and greater disparity between the rich and the poor. Human well-being, the
environment, and natural resources are sacrificed to meet security demands.

Food self-sufficiency and security remain high on the political agenda. Subsidies offered to
encourage local agricultural production add to the immense stress on water resources and
arable lands. Intensive agricultural production during periods of deteriorating irrigation water
quality and soil salinity eventually leads to additional land impoverishment and loss.

18 Scenario Development and Analysis