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Module
6 Note: It is possible that participants see elements of all four scenarios in the present world.

On the other hand they might, for example, see many more signals for a “Markets first”
world or a “Policy First” world. The important point of this exercise is to increase familiarity

with the GEO-3 scenarios, and to start thinking about the way the present and the future
9-12 December, 2013 be expected that different people will see signs of different futures today.
are connected. The present always carries the seeds of multiple future trajectories, so it is to

5
The purpose, process and substance of scenarios and scenario exercises

A range of processes have been used in producing the large number of scenarios described in the
literature. Van Notten and others present a typology that examines nine separate characteristics of
scenarios and scenario exercises. At a higher level, these are aggregated into three overarching themes:
project goal, process design and scenario content. In very simple terms, these can be stated as the

why, how and what of scenarios and scenario development. As might be expected, there are generally
strong connections among these themes. The project goal influences the process design, which, in turn,
influences scenario content.

The first theme addresses the objectives of a scenario analysis as well as subsequent demands on

design of the scenario development process. On one end of the spectrum is the goal of exploration.
This might include awareness raising, stimulation of creative thinking and gaining insight into the way
societal processes influence one another. In such an exercise, the process is often as important as the
product (i.e., the scenario or set of scenarios), which may even be discarded at the end of the process.
At the other end of the spectrum is the goal of direct decision support. In this case, scenarios might

propose concrete strategic options. Decision-support scenario exercises often contain value-laden
combinations of scenarios that are described as desirable, middle-of-the-road and undesirable. The two
types of project goals often are combined: exploratory scenarios are developed first, after which new
scenarios are developed by zooming in on aspects relevant to strategy development.

Process design, the second overarching theme, focuses on how scenarios are produced. It addresses
aspects such as the degree of quantitative and qualitative data used, or the choice among stakeholder
workshops, expert interviews and desk research. On one end of the spectrum, there is the intuitive
approach, which considers scenario development as an art form, and leans heavily on qualitative
knowledge and insights. Creative techniques, such as development of stories or storylines or collages
of pictures, are typical intuitive approaches to scenario analysis. Interactive group sessions with a

22 Scenario Development and Analysis