Page 27 - Module_6_en

Module

Disadvantages: Arbitrary, tough to identify or test underlying assumptions. Do not provide
numerical information. 6

Quantitative Scenarios
Advantages: Model-based, with numerical information; can identify underlying assumptions.

Disadvantages: Models have limited view of the world, and are often are not transparent;
exactness gives illusion of certainty; difficult to reflect changes in fundamental scenario
features such as values, lifestyles, institutions, and structural shifts in the social and Abu Dhabi, UAE
environmental system under study.

EXERCISE

In small groups, discuss the objectives, proposed process design and content of a planned
or hypothetical regional, national or sub-national scenario exercise. Report back to plenary
to discuss your results and resolve differences.

Note:

1. for this exercise, it could be interesting to have one female and one male group, since
there could be gender differences in the ideas about objectives, process and content.

2. choose one environmemnal issue that you have been working on during the pervious
modules.

6 Policy analysis

Experience suggests there are a variety of ways in which policies can and have been addressed in a
scenario exercise. Unfortunately, in most cases, this has been an afterthought, and little attention has
1
been paid to how these approaches differ, their appropriate purposes and the implications for designing
a scenario exercise. In this section, we will explore this issue in some detail.

1. For the purposes here, the word policy is defined broadly. It denotes any organized intervention by an actor in the system of interest. Thus,
it should be seen to include inter alia laws and legislation, economic instruments, property rights reform and market creation, reform of state
bureaucracies, activities by the private sector, NON-GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONSs, and civil society.

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 25