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hand, are more likely to take these as given. In the latter case, the policy question to be asked   Module
                      can be phrased as, “What can we do to cope best with the set of possible situations we might
                      face?”  In  the  former,  a  more  relevant  question  would  be, “What  could  we  do  to  create  a   6
                      particular situation?”


                      Combining the above, we can talk about eight cases


                       Case Existing    Preconceived  Policies determine     Potential uses
                            policies?   end visions?  the scenario?                                                Abu Dhabi, UAE
                       a    YES         YES         YES              Test particular policies to see if they can
                                                                     create the conditions under which end visions
                                                                     or specific targets can be achieved,

                                                                     while also considering the broader
                                                                     implications of the policies.

                       b    YES         YES         NO               Test particular policies to see whether and
                                                                     to what extent they can help to achieve end
                                                                     visions or specific targets under otherwise
                                                                     fixed conditions, while also considering the
                                                                     broader implications of the policies.


                       c    YES         NO          YES              Explore the role of particular policies in
                                                                     determining the broad nature of the future.

                       d    YES         NO          NO               Explore the effects of particular policies under
                                                                     otherwise fixed conditions.


                       e    NO          YES         YES              Identify policies that can create the conditions
                                                                     under which end visions or specific targets
                                                                     can be achieved, while also considering the
                                                                     broader implications of the policies


                       f    NO          YES         NO               Identify policies that can help to meet specific
                                                                     targets under given conditions, while also
                                                                     considering the broader implications of the
                                                                     policies.
                       g    NO          NO          YES              Identify policies that may determine the broad
                                                                     nature of the future.

                       h    NO          NO          NO               Identify policies and their implications under
                                                                     certain given conditions.









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