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The following process is proposed as a useful framework for an IEA if a complete scenario development Module
is to be carried out. It follows the GEO approach in three ways:

1. It is explicitly policy-relevant; 6

2. It is intended to be comprehensive enough to allow the scenario team to incorporate a broad
range of issues that arise in sustainability analyses; and

3. It is presented as a participatory, stakeholder-driven process. Furthermore, it is a built upon the
scenario processes used in earlier GEOs, and also adopted (with some modifications) in the first Abu Dhabi, UAE
GEO Training Manual (Pinter and others 2000).

The steps of the scenario process can be grouped as follows (see also Figure 4). As they relate to similar
stages in the process, the steps in each group will often be pursued in parallel. There is no single best
way to undertake each of the steps; still, suggested approaches for each are presented in some detail
below. Finally, although Communication & Outreach is identified as a separate group, such activities
should take place throughout the process and not just at the end of the exercise, as discussed in detail
in Module 3.

Clarifying the Purpose and Structure of the Scenario Exercise

1. Identifying stakeholders and selecting participants.
2. Establishing the nature and scope of the scenarios.

3. Identifying themes, targets, indicators, and potential policies.

Laying the Foundation for the Scenarios

4. Identifying drivers.
5. Selecting critical uncertainties.

6. Creating a scenario framework.

Developing and Testing the Scenarios
7. Elaborating the scenario narratives.
8. Undertaking the quantitative analysis.

9. Exploring policy.

Communication and Outreach

Not all of these steps are required in every scenario process. Some exercises forego the quantitative
aspects, while others have little or no narrative element. Also, it has become common practice
to use existing scenario studies as the starting point for developing new scenarios. This can be

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 31