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Module three scenarios explore how current social, economic, political, technological and environmental
6 trends may unfold along the different development paths in the future, and what this might mean

for the environment and human well-being. They look at the Emirate's future through the lens
of "environment and development", and concentrates on the end results of the various choices
that might be made through the use of scenarios thinking. The scenarios include a combination

of cases.
9-12 December, 2013 ? Scenarios to explore adaptation to Climate Change

Within the Global International Waters Assessment and, as reported in the assessments of
the IPCC and elsewhere, numerous scenarios have explored not only the potential impacts of
climate change, but also policies and actions to ameliorate or adapt to these changes. These
may or may not have preconceived policies or end visions, but almost all take the change in
climate as given. Thus, depending on their particular setup, they can provide examples of cases

b, d, f or h.

EXERCISE

For your country, a set of national scenarios for a selected issue (water, energy, food
security, tourism) is to be developed. In small groups, select an issue and discuss which
existing policies would be relevant for consideration in the scenario, whether there is

an end vision for this issue (and if so, what it is), and whether particular policies would
essentially determine the scenarios, or merely influence parts of them? Decide on the
basis of the discussion which of the cases listed in the table above best characterizes the
scenario.

Present and discuss in plenary.

7 Developing scenarios - A complete process

While there are many different processes that have been used to develop and analyse scenarios,
most involve a common set of steps. While recognizing that there are benefits and drawbacks to
following the specific approach outlined here, in order to provide a coherent training module, we felt
it was easiest to present one process. For those interested in exploring other alternatives, we suggest
reviewing Alcamo (2001), Galt and others (1997), and other papers cited in Section 3, above.

30 Scenario Development and Analysis