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target. The scenario analysis was model-based and helped identify the technology portfolios in each Module
sector that could achieve the target and their evolution over time, while providing an indication of
the overall cost. 6

? Exploring the future of the environment in the Arab Region

Environmental Outlook for the Arab Region (EOAR): considered four broad scenarios for the
future, which are based essentially on GEO-3/-4 scenarios. Each started from a set of assumptions
about general policy developments in the various areas of governance, economic development, Abu Dhabi, UAE
demography and human development, science & technology, culture, and regional integration and
cooperation, which were assumed to determine, in large part, the future shape of the region.
This can be seen as an example of case c, but also g to determine which of these policies may

determine the broad nature of the future. The path to a sustainable future, as presented in the
“Sustainability First” scenario, would be supported by “The Sustainable Development Initiative
in the Arab Region”, prepared by the Arab ministers responsible for development, planning, and
environment in 2001, and adopted by the Arab League and presented in WSSD, Johannesburg, 2002.
The initiative’s numerous priority areas included “Establishment of a suitable environment at the
regional level to support the efforts to achieved peace and security”, “Supporting the development
of integrated population policies”, and “Encouraging IWRM”. The Initiative, with its major principles,

goals, and called actions can be seen as an end vision for the Arab region (case f). In the “Market
First” development in the Arab Countries is dominated by market forces and market mechanisms
(demand and supply for goods and services), where the slogan of “economic growth at any cost”
dominates, and social problems and environmental stresses are left to the self-correcting logic of
competitive markets. This scenario is an example of case a, these policies are tested to see if they
can create the conditons under which end vision or specific targets can be achieved. Similarly this

can be made in the “Security First”, which is considered as an extreme case of the “Market First”,
where it is assumed that current instability in the region intensifies in the future and that global
security continues to deteriorate as well. Place EOAR site (when it is ready)

? Scenarios to explore the future of the environment in a an Arab country/Emirate: Abu Dhabi

Environmental Scenarios
Abu Dhabi Emirate Scenarios were developed as part of the State of the Environment (SOE) in
2007 (http://www.soe.ae/). The developed scenarios were trying to answer the following main
question: Could Abu Dhabi Emirate achieve sustainable development over the next 25 years? If

yes, how? If not, why?

Three scenarios exploring different policy approaches and societal choices are presented using a
narrative storyline. These are termed: Market-Driven, Community Assisted, and Zayed Vision. The

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 29