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Module due to resource limitations, as some of the steps can be carried out very quickly building on the
6 prior analysis. For example, if a national scenario process builds on the GEO-4 scenarios, the main

drivers are identified in the global stories, although at the national level there could be additional
driving forces that have to be considered. It may also be useful if the exercise is meant to link
with scenarios being developed at other scales (see box), or if the primary purpose is to test

the robustness of specific policies across a range of futures that is already well represented in
9-12 December, 2013 is preferable to not use existing scenarios as this might inhibit the recognition of other relevant
an existing set. Ideally, though, since scenario development aims to be an exploratory exercise, it

signals of change, leaving the policy-maker vulnerable to developments that were not anticipated
in the scenarios adopted.

BOX 8 Recognizing the significance of developments at other scales for a
national scenario process

Although the focus here is on national IEA processes, a study might be complemented by
the development of scenarios on other levels: global, regional and local. The challenge then
is to conceive scenarios that are consistent on all the levels. To illustrate: the pattern of rising

sea levels described in global scenarios should be consistent with its impact as addressed in
scenarios at lower scale levels, namely flooding in low-lying regions such as Bangladesh, the
Netherlands and the Seychelles. The integration of multiple geographical scales is still subject
to methodological development, as in such scenario studies as VISIONS and GEO-4. In both
cases, the respective scenario teams worked to integrate global and regional information.
Global developments served as input for regional scenarios, and regional developments
were used to enrich and refine the scenarios at the higher scale level.

BOX 9 Seeing the scenario development as part of the whole IEA process

The IEA process as a whole is described in Module 2 of this training manual. The scenario
development is nested within the overall IEA process, with planning of the scenario sub-
process in stages 3 and 4. In step 2, there is reference to and discussion of stakeholders,
which also is of relevance to the scenario process. Indeed, it is most likely that each stage of

32 Scenario Development and Analysis