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Module b. Identifying stakeholders and selecting participants
6 Purpose

To ensure that the scenario process benefits from the input of a cross-section of society, thus increasing
the likelihood that the scenarios have buy-in from the appropriate actors. This improves the usefulness
of the scenarios to the end-user (note: identification of stakeholders is also covered in Modules 2 and
9-12 December, 2013 Output(s)
3).

A list of participants and alternates.

Steps
1. Identify who (i.e., which organization or institution) is convening this scenario exercise. This is one
audience, and it might be important to consider participant(s) from this group.

2. Identify other audiences for the scenarios by deciding whom the scenarios are intended to reach.
It might be important to consider participants from these audiences. The audience for scenarios
could well be the same as for the national IEA as a whole, as discussed in Module 3.

3. Identify other key stakeholders. Consider who has an important stake in the country’s future,
who are the decision-makers (determining both public policies and private behaviours), and who
are the people directly affected by such decisions.

Comments

Policy-makers and others who will make use of the scenarios should be included in the scenario
team. If they cannot participate, it is important that their views are canvassed to establish what
3
issues are most pressing and how they view their interests unfolding over the scenario time frame.
Once the participants are chosen, they need to be involved in the subsequent activities, preferably in
face-to-face meetings, with sufficient time to have detailed discussions and to reach consensus where
possible.

3. In reality, for a national GEO there may be no separate scenario team. The team that is in charge of the assessment as a whole would lead
the work on all sections, including the scenarios.

36 Scenario Development and Analysis