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Module Steps
6 1. Telling the story of the present (how we got here, and topics that are of interest). This provides
background to the scenarios, and illustrates the seeds of the future in the present.
2. Identifying issues that are important with respect to your country’s future. If you were to write a
comprehensive “history of the future,” consider what topics you would need to discuss.
9-12 December, 2013 fears for the future of their country. Think broadly. Think near and long term. If you are concerned
3. Thinking about the broad range of future possibilities, the participants should discuss their hopes and
about sustainability, think, for example, about ecosystem services (not just resources and extraction)
and equitable well-being (not just economic growth).
4. Define the time horizon, choosing a length of time that is, on balance, long enough to be appropriate
to the themes you have identified.
Comments
Figure 5 summarizes some general themes to consider (see Gallopin and Raskin, 2002). It may be
necessary to identify a number of sub-themes to satisfy the needs of the scenario exercise.
Figure 5 General scenario themes
Source: Gallopin and Raskin 2002)
38 Scenario Development and Analysis
