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Steps Module

1. Identify the drivers. Be sure to do this in the context of the themes that you developed earlier.
Think about key historical events and trends, and how these have affected the themes in the past. 6
To identify drivers, think in terms of underlying causal relationships, not just descriptions.

2. For each driver, describe briefly the range of possible ways it could evolve in the future.
Abu Dhabi, UAE

Comments

Figure 7 lists some of the drivers that were considered in the GEO-3 global scenarios. Drivers at the
national level might be different, but the principle is the same.

Figure 7 Examples of scenario drivers from GEO-3, including current trends.

Demographic Technological
? Population is growing ? Advancement and penetration of
Urban population is aging * Computer and information technology
* Blotechnology
Economic * Nanotechnology and miniaturization
? Economy increasingly globalized
Environmental
Social ? Increasing global stress
? Increasing inequallty ? Local degradtion
? Worsening poverty ? Some remedition (in richer countries)

Cultural Governance
? Spread of values of consumerism and ? Evolution of global institutions (e.g.,
individualism MEAs)
? Rising nationalist and fundamentallst ? Spreading of democratic governance
? Expanding roles for civil society in
reaction decision-making

... but important exceptions

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 43