Page 46 - Module_6_en

Module
6 EXERCISE

Divide into small groups (one for each of the themes developed above) and produce a
list of the main drivers and describe how they could develop in the future. Discuss the
9-12 December, 2013 Discuss the tables in plenary. Assumptions about development
tables in plenary.

Theme
Drivers
Air Quality
Population growth
Mobility Increase until 2030 then tapering off
Major increase in number of cars until 2030
Or
Major increase in use of public transportation
Energy consumption Stabilization of energy consumption due to
massive investments in energy efficiency
Or
Switch to renewable sources completed by 2030

…further drivers… …further developments

e. Selecting critical uncertainties

Purpose

To select the critical uncertainties, which will define the scenario framework.

Output(s)

A set of critical uncertainties, selected from among the drivers developed in Step 5.

A critical uncertainty is a driver that is especially important in determining how the future evolves, but
whose future development is highly unpredictable.

Steps

1. Consider each driver in turn, and recall the range of possible ways it could evolve.
2. Consider the degree of uncertainty in each driver. How much variation is there in the range of
possible ways it could evolve? Is there a great deal of uncertainty, or relatively little?

44 Scenario Development and Analysis