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Module
Critical Uncertainty 1 Critical Uncertainty 2 Critical Uncertainty 3

(1a, 1b) (2a, 2b) (3a, 3b, 3c)
Scenario 5 1a 2b 3b 6
Scenario 6 1a 2b 3c

Scenario 7 1b 2a 3a
Scenario 8 1b 2a 3b

Scenario 9 1b 2a 3c Abu Dhabi, UAE
Scenario 10 1b 2b 3a

Scenario 11 1b 2b 3b
Scenario 12 1b 2b 3c

Having completed the steps above, consider whether the result is a meaningful set of scenario bases
to explore. Do they span a sufficiently wide range of possible futures? Do they allow you to take into
account the most important concerns of the participants? If not, return to the discussion of drivers and
see whether important issues have been left out, or if possible future evolutions of some drivers have
been neglected.

EXERCISE

In plenary, do one of the following: a) select two of the critical uncertainties identified
above and create a scenario framework, or b) group the critical uncertainties identified
above into two clusters (e.g. technological developments and external policy decisions)
and use these clusters to create a scenario framework:

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 49