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Module ? in the “high importance, high uncertainty” quadrant: a subset of these should figure prominently
6 described in next step. The others will also figure prominently, and their future evolution may
in the scenario analysis by defining the key underlying distinctions between the scenarios as

very well differ across the scenarios.

9-12 December, 2013 EXERCISE

In small groups for each of the themes discussed above, take the list of drivers and
categorize them using Figure 8. Present the diagrams in plenary and discuss the drivers
that fall in the category “high importance and high uncertainty”

f. Creating a scenario framework

Purpose

To establish the scenario framework using the critical uncertainties.

Output(s)

A set of clearly defined scenario bases.

The critical uncertainties identified in Step 6 capture in a very simplified, orderly way a set of fundamental

ways the future can evolve. Step 7 provides a simple procedure for creating a scenario framework, and
thereby defining four distinct scenarios.

Steps

Picture two clearly dominant critical uncertainties (say, CU#1 and CU#2, Figure 8), each of which could
evolve in two distinct ways. Define a scenario grid as shown in Figure 9. This framework reflects the
four possible combinations of how CU#1 and CU#2 can evolve, and thus four possible future worlds.

46 Scenario Development and Analysis