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Module 7.3 Developing and testing scenarios
6 With the foundation established, it is now possible to more fully develop the actual scenarios, as well

as undertake more detailed policy analyses. Depending upon the choices made, greater or lesser

emphasis will be placed on the narrative and quantitative aspects in developing the scenarios. In
addition, the nature of the policy analysis desired will affect both the development and use of the
9-12 December, 2013 g. Elaborating scenario narratives
scenarios.

Purpose

To create a detailed, compelling description of the scenario.

Output(s)

A (several page long) scenario narrative.

Steps

For each scenario do the following steps.

1. Current state and trends. Lead a discussion among the stakeholders of aspects of today’s world
that seem to represent characteristics of the particular future scenario being developed. Explore

each to identify as many “seeds of the future” as possible. These will help flesh out a plausible
picture of how our current world could evolve into the future depicted in the scenario.

2. End picture. Lead a discussion among the stakeholders of the end vision of the scenario. Once
the critical uncertainties have been resolved, what would the world look like? Add detail and
texture that will help round out the end vision of the scenario, and create an integrated, self-
consistent snapshot of the end state. Consider each theme and driver, and provide some detail.
Consider what aspects of life have changed for better or worse. Consider what challenges have
been resolved, and what challenges have emerged and still lie ahead.

3. Timeline. Lead a discussion to connect the current state to the end picture through a plausible
historical route. Consider the interactions among the themes and how they would evolve
together in a self-consistent manner. You might want to draw on a poster paper or whiteboard
a timeline spanning the period from present to the time horizon of the scenario, and have the
group brainstorm events occurring at specific times. Consider each theme and each driver. (You
might want to draw several parallel timelines to keep track of different themes or drivers.)
Consider the challenges that have been resolved or that have emerged, and reflect these in
events on the timeline.

50 Scenario Development and Analysis