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Module
6
EXERCISE
For the scenario narratives developed above discuss in groups the particular policy areas
that would be most relevant for inclusion in the scenario. Which new policies would be
critical to reach the defined endpoint? Which existing policies would need to be modified
to reach the endpoint? Abu Dhabi, UAE
More advanced users can try to implement some basic aspects of their own scenario
narratives in International Futures (IF).
Discuss the results in plenary.
7.4 Communication and outreach
Module 7 of this training manual deals with the communication of the assessment, and Module 3 deals
with design of an impact strategy. The entire training manual is designed to provide capacity building in
environmental and sustainable development assessment processes. That said, there are special issues
related to communication, outreach and capacity building that are of particular importance to scenario
development.
Because uncertainty is at the core of the development and use of scenarios, the communication
of the results of any scenario exercise must recognize the limitations as well as the value of such a
process. No scenario exercise should be expected to capture all the intricacies of the world. It is as
important to describe clearly the purpose and scope of a scenario exercise, and the assumptions
underlying any scenario or set of scenarios as the results of any analysis based upon a particular
scenario or set of scenarios. Scenarios are intended to explore what could happen, not what will
happen. If this is not clearly communicated, there is great potential for scenarios to be misused and
misinterpreted.
The extent and manner of communication of scenarios is particularly important if the scenarios are
to succeed in inspiring new visions of the future. Note, for example, the success of the Mont Fleur
scenarios, which were published first in a newspaper and thus, widely communicated (see section 4,
above). This kind of communication obviously needs a language and style of presentation that is suitable
for a broad audience.
IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 55
