Page 56 - Module_6_en

Module
6 Select Scenario Set “UNEPGEO” (These are the GEO Scenarios described earlier in this

module)

Select time horizon
From here on you have several options, including displaying scenarios or actually carrying
9-12 December, 2013 out scenario analysis. Please note that there is an extensive Help system that allows you to

learn more about the model and how to use it. For this activity, in order to illustrate the link
between narratives and quantification, select “Display”.

Select your country and look at a few key indicators, e.g. carbon emissions and water usage,
for the four GEO scenarios. Discuss those differences by reflecting on the overall narrative
of each scenario.

I. Exploring policies

Purpose

To explore the feasibility, appropriateness, effectiveness and robustness of various policies.

Output(s)

Identification of further potential policies beyond those elaborated in step c (Identifying Themes, Targets,
Potential Policies and Indicators), and information about the feasibility, appropriateness, effectiveness
and robustness of particular policies (including combinations) in shaping and/or coping with the range
of scenarios.

Steps

As discussed in the previous section, the nature of policy analysis can differ markedly across and
sometimes within scenario exercises. In some cases, the introduction of policies into the scenarios

will occur at a very early stage, e.g., they may represent one or more of the key uncertainties
defining the scenarios. In other cases, the exercise may involve developing scenarios which, from
the standpoint of the users, are ‘incomplete’ in that they do not include specific policy assumptions,
and are only finalized with the introduction of potential policies. In either case, it is important to
reflect upon and analyse the feasibility, appropriateness, effectiveness and robustness of particular
policies. This should be done, in part, by comparing the scenarios as defined by key indicators,
against key goals and targets, with and without the inclusion of specific policies.

54 Scenario Development and Analysis