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BOX 10 Linking narratives and numbers in scenario development Module
6

The results of the quantification process should provide additional, complementary
information about the scenarios, specifically regarding the major themes and drivers for which
indicators had been selected. If some of the results conflict with the narrative description
of the scenario, these should be examined carefully. It might be the case that results of the
quantification reflect complex interactions more correctly, particularly where large numbers Abu Dhabi, UAE
of calculations are needed to go from assumptions to conclusions; alternatively the models
used may not have captured key relationships described in the narrative, particularly where
these are not amenable to traditional methods of modelling. Thus, those developing the
quantification and the narrative need to explore important differences, and both should be
prepared to revise their respective representations of the scenarios being developed.

EXERCISE

Explore scenario quantification using the International Futures model developed by Barry

Hughes at the University of Denver. For this exercise computers and access to the internet will
be required (the model can also be loaded onto the computers directly, but this description
assumes that this is not the case as many participants will have their own computers).

IFs is a world model, representing the world in multiple regions as well as individual
countries. It allows you to forecast developments in demographics, food and agriculture,
energy, economics, politics, and the environment from 2000 to 2100. Using IFs you can make
multiple forecasts based on changes in assumptions about the workings of the world and
about government policy choices. After making such changes you can run the model and
then display the results in tabular or graphical form. Through comparison of forecasts you

can analyze the leverage we have to affect our world and the policies that may improve our
futures. IFs has been used in the scenario development for GEO-4.
Go to http://www.ifs.du.edu

Select “Web-Based IFs”

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 53