Page 53 - Module_6_en

4. Using the current state, the end picture and the timeline, your group can now expand these to Module
create a coherent narrative. Add detail and texture that will help round out each scenario and
create an integrated, self-consistent and compelling storyline. Your group might want to consider 6
describing crises and shocks, or branch points where two scenarios diverge because of different
societal decisions or key events. Your group might also want to use novel and compelling ways of
presenting information within the narratives, such as news stories, advertisements, memoirs and
“day-in-the-life” vignettes.

5. While developing your scenario narratives, create a name for each scenario. Try to find a name Abu Dhabi, UAE
that captures the essence of the scenario and differentiates it clearly from the others. It is also
useful if there is some link across the set of names that helps to capture the key differences
between the scenarios.

EXERCISE
In four groups, develop plausible short stories for each of the scenarios defined by the
scenario framework specified in the previous exercise. The stories need to present the
situation at the end of the time horizon as well as the path between the present day and
that time. What happens with the critical uncertainties, inevitables, and main themesneeds
to be clear in the stories. In addition, the stories need to provide information on policies,
goals, and targets identified in earlier exercises.

Present these short narratives in plenary and consider their main differences.

h. Undertaking the quantitative analysis

Purpose

To enhance and elaborate the scenario narrative with quantitative information.

Output(s)

Specific, scientifically defensible quantitative information.

Steps

The quantitative analysis supports and complements the scenario narrative, and can help highlight and
remove internal inconsistencies within these. Steps in a quantitative analysis are:

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 51