Page 49 - Module_6_en

6
Figure 9 Four possible futures define the scenario framework from two Module
critical uncertainties

Uncertainty 2
Scenario B Scenario A

Critical Uncertainty 2 Abu Dhabi, UAE

Scenario C Critical Scenario D

For a simple example, consider a case where scenario participants have identified two critical uncertainties,
CU#1, which refers to the sensitivity of ecosystems to human pressures, and CU#2, which refers to
the future development of technology. Assume that participants have concluded that the sensitivity of
ecosystems to human pressures (e.g., GHG emissions, coastal erosion, fishery exploitation) could be
described as falling along the follow spectrum:

Sensitive global ecosystem Resilient global ecosystem
High level of sensitivity, with High level of resilience and
feedbacks that lead to large ability to adapt and recover,
impacts, even from relatively leading to modest impacts from
minor human pressures. even relatively large human
pressures.

Assume also that the participants have decided that future development of environmentally relevant
technologies (e.g., renewable energy, environmentally sensitive agricultural technologies) could be
described as falling along the following spectrum:

Technological stagnation Technological innovation

Slow and incremental, with Rapid and fundamental,
minor potential for addressing with considerable potential
environmental challenges with to address environmental
technological fixes. challenges with technological
fixes.

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 47