Page 44 - Module_6_en

Module
6 EXERCISE

For the themes and sub-themes identified above attempt to fill in the following table.

9-12 December, 2013 Build on the results of the exercise from Section 6: Indicators

Target(s)
Potential policies
Theme
e.g., Air Quality
e.g., by 2015 no air
Concentrations of major
e.g., vehicle emission
standards
pollutant to exceed
pollutant
safe limits
e.g., by 2020 reduce child e.g., sanitation provision,
e.g., Health
mortality by 90% air quality standards, Child mortality
public health policies

7.2 Laying the foundation for the scenarios
The previous steps provide the broad outline for the scenario exercise as a whole. At this point, it is
necessary to look more closely at the foundations for the scenarios themselves. How many scenarios
are to be developed, and what should be the fundamental distinctions between them?

d. Identifying drivers

Purpose
To identify, in the context of the exercise, the key trends and dynamics that will determine the course
of the future. (Note: this can build on the SoE analysis carried out in Module 5 (DPSIR framework).

For scenario development, the important question is whether these drivers are likely to change and
whether new drivers are expected to emerge. Furthermore, based on their nature, drivers can be
broadlly categroized under 5 categories: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political
(STEEP)).

Output(s)

List of drivers with brief explanations.

42 Scenario Development and Analysis