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Module Output(s)
6 An initial set of potential policies to consider in the scenario exercise

Steps

The previous section of this module explored the issue of policy analysis in the context of scenarios in
9-12 December, 2013 It is also a core aspect of Module 5 (Integrated Analysis of Environmental Trends and Policies). Thus,
some detail. This is an issue that is also explored to some extent in the steps already described above.

this step should build upon those efforts. At this point, it is important to be more explicit about the
policies to be considered in the scenario analysis, recognizing that this should include not only previous
and existing policies, but also other potential options.

Consider, therefore

? Are there existing or potential policies you wish to explore as part of the scenario exercise?

? Is there a preconceived end vision, or at least some aspects of a vision, i.e., specific targets?

Selecting indicators

Purpose

To select specific (quantitative) indicators that characterize the system of interest, in order to enhance
and elaborate the scenario narrative and provide measures by which to partially evaluate the scenarios
against key criteria.

Output(s)

An initial set of (quantitative) indicators.

Steps

1. In the context of the themes, targets and drivers, select indicators that would provide useful
elaboration and deepening of the scenario narratives. Be sure to include indicators that can serve
as metrics to evaluate the scenarios in light of any identified targets. Indicators are also a key
aspect of a complete assessment (see Modules 4 and 5), so it might be useful to link this step
with steps in those modules.

2. Indicate in a qualitative way how the trends in a few of these indicators could evolve in the
future. Even though this may not be as scientifically rigorous an exercise as quantitative modelling,
it will help make explicit the participants’ understanding of the issues and scenarios. It will also
provide a basis against which to compare the narrative and quantitative aspects of the scenarios.

40 Scenario Development and Analysis