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3. Consider the relative impact/importance of each driver into the future. Does the way that it Module
evolves make a major difference in the overall vision for the future, or does it make a relatively
minor difference? 6

4. Plot each driver on the chart of impact/importance versus uncertainty. (In Figure 8, each circle
represents a particular driver.) The farther to the right, the greater the uncertainty in how that
driver could develop. The farther upward, the more significant is the impact of that driver.

5. Identify the drivers (usually two or three) that are highest impact and highest uncertainty. (In Figure
8, the two drivers that have the combination of the highest importance and highest uncertainty are Abu Dhabi, UAE
labeled CU1 and CU2.)

Figure 8 Identifying critical uncertainties (CU)

Higher importance

Lower uncertainty Higher uncertainty

Lower importance

Comments

For those drivers that are:
? in the “low importance, low uncertainty” quadrant: these will not figure prominently in the scenario
analysis because outcomes are clear, or the issues are not thought to be particularly influential in
the future;

? in the “low importance, high uncertainty” quadrant: these will not figure prominently in the scenario
analysis because they are not of sufficient significance;

? in the “high importance, low uncertainty” quadrant:, these should figure prominently in the scenario
analysis, but their future evolution should not differ significantly across the scenarios, reflecting the
low level of uncertainty; in this way they can be considered ‘inevitables’; and

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 45