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Module

the IEA process would use the same set of stakeholders for identification of priority issues, 6
development of indicators and scenario analysis. Also, the scenario process often will be
based on or informed by the state of the environment analysis and ex post policy analysis
(Module 5).
Abu Dhabi, UAE

Figure 4 Steps in a generic scenario development process

Establishing the nature and scope of Identifying and selecting
the scenarios (a) stakeholders/participants (b)

Identifying themes, targets,
indicators and potential policies (c)

Clarifying the purpose and structure of the scenario exercise

Identifying driving forceS (d) Selecting critical uncertainties (e)

Creating a scenario framework (f)

Laying the foundation for the scenarios

Elaborating the scenario narratives (g) Undertaking quantitative analysis (h)

Exploring policy (i)

Developing and testing the actual scenarios

Communication and outreach

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 33