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Module considering only the immediate or first-order effects of changes in the external environment. Simple
6 scenarios may also limit themselves to extrapolation of trends. The term “simple” is not meant to

indicate poor quality. An exercise with a narrow focus or a short-term perspective may not require the
relatively lengthy and demanding investment of developing complex scenarios, which can be a benefit
in many other circumstances. Furthermore, a simple scenario can be more effective in communicating

its message than a complex scenario.
9-12 December, 2013 BOX 6 The value of participatory processes

Most scenario development exercises are participatory in nature. Some reasons for wanting
to make scenario exercises more participatory:

? to make use of local and specialized knowledge: many people, particularly those working
in key sectors or living in key regions, will have specific expertise on the issues being
addressed in development of the scenario;

? to create buy-in: people are more willing to accept results and insights of any analysis in
which they have had a hand in production;

? to create ambassadors: those involved in the development will often be able and willing
to reach audiences that are less available to the researchers; and

? to reach those whose minds you most want to change, especially when the point of the
exercise is to influence decision-makers, it is more effective to have them be part of the
process rather than passive recipients of information.

BOX 7 The advantages and disadvantages of qualitative and quantitative
scenarios

At a basic level, the advantages and disadvantages of qualitative and quantitative approaches
are as follows.

Qualitative Scenarios
Advantages: Understandable, interesting, and represent views and complexity of many
different interests.

24 Scenario Development and Analysis