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B1. A convergent world with the same global population trends as the A1 story line, but with rapid changes Module
in economic structure toward a service and information economy, reductions in material intensity, and
introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions for economic, 6
social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.

B2. A world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental
sustainability. This is a world with continuously increasing global population, although at a rate lower than
seen in A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid, more diverse technological
change than in the B1 and A1 story lines. Abu Dhabi, UAE

BOX 4 Other long-term scenarios

Few other studies have tried to look as far out into the future as IPCC, although the MA
(2005b) provided some indication of certain trends to 2100 in its scenarios. Kahn and
others (1976) presented a scenario looking 200 years into the future and a small set of 1
000-year scenarios were created as an exercise as part of the United Nations University’s
Millennium Project (Glenn and Gordon 2005). Other studies, such as the UN’s World
Population to 2300 (UN 2004) represent more narrow projections of specific issues,
rather than actual scenarios.

EXERCISE

Working in small groups, each person takes 4-5 minutes to consider the GEO scenarios and
answer the following question:

What trends in the present day world are signals of one of the four GEO scenarios?

Discuss answers in the group
Paste answers on flip charts (one for each GEO scenario). Are there more signals for one
scenario than for others, or are the signals evenly spread? Discuss.

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 21