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Under this scenario, the continued destruction of habitats and ecosystems results in 6
continuous decline in species population, increase in the number of threatened species,
and an incessant loss of biodiversity.

Sustainability First (Renaissance)
This scenario envisions the emergence of a new development paradigm in response to
the challenges of sustainability, which is supported by new and more equitable values and Abu Dhabi, UAE
institutions. The notion of human development and investment in human capital, rather than
material acquisition, is advanced as a form of cultural and social evolution. A more visionary
state of affairs prevails; where proactive solutions to the challenges of sustainability are
provided that support a sustained link among social, economic and environmental policies.

The region continues to face shortages of some natural resources, water being the most vital
among them. In response, governments in the region create institutional, policy and legislative
reforms that allow water scarcity issues to take centre stage on national and regional policy
agendas.

Quality of life lindex
100
90
80 Markets
70 Policy
60 Security
50 Sustain
40
30
20
10
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

In the “Sustainability First” scenario, both the improvement of governance and a sustained link
among social, economic, and environmental policies provide a solution to the environmental
sustainability challenges in the region. Integration, cooperation, and dialogue at the national,
regional, and inter-regional levels replace tensions and armed conflicts. Economic gains are
modest compared to” Market First” and “Policy First” scenarios but overall quality of life and
environment improve.

Biodiversity in the region benefits from the overall improvements in environmental
conditions, the quality of wastewater greatly improves and the expansion of cities is well-
planned, minimizing encroachment on arable lands.

Source: EOAR REPORT 2010

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 19