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Module 4.2 Medium-term regional and global scenarios - The UNEP GEO-3 and GEO-4
6 Scenarios

The development of the scenarios for UNEP’s third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) has been
described in detail by Bakkes and others (2004); these in turn formed the foundation for the scenarios

of GEO-4. The scenarios were built on existing and ongoing exercises, in particular the work of the
9-12 December, 2013 (2000). A key aspect of both the GEO-3 and GEO-4 processes was that, although global in extent,
Global Scenario Group (Raskin and others 2002) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

each scenario was developed at regional and sub-regional levels (using UNEP’s regions and sub-
regions, see http://www.unep.org/geo/region.htm). The scenarios were to be developed using a holistic
approach that included all aspects of sustainable development, but offered an environmental window
by emphasizing environmental descriptions and policies. The narratives included the current state and

trends, drivers, a story line into the future, and a vision of the future. The GEO-3 scenarios used a
30-year time period (i.e., 2002–32), which was then extended to 2050 for GEO-4. The categories of
drivers were: institutions and socio-political frameworks; demographics; economic demand, markets and
trade; sceintific and technological innovation; and value systems.

The scenarios were developed through series of meetings that elaborated the scenario narratives
complemented by an integrated multi-model exercise that produced quantitative data. The resulting
four scenarios were named Markets First, Policy First, Security First and Sustainability First, emphasizing
the key underlying societal focus in each case.

Markets First. The private sector, with active government support, pursues maximum economic growth
as the best path to improve the environment and human well-being. Lip service is paid to the ideals of
the Brundtland Commission, Agenda 21 and other major policy decisions on sustainable development.
There is a narrow focus on the sustainability of markets rather than on the broader human-environment
system. Technological fixes to environmental challenges are emphasized at the expense of other policy

interventions and some tried-and-tested solutions.

Policy First. Government, with active private and civil sector support, initiates and implements strong
policies to improve the environment and human well-being, while still emphasizing economic development.
Policy First introduces some measures aimed at promoting sustainable development, but the tensions

between environment and economic policies are biased towards social and economic considerations.
Still, it brings the idealism of the Brundtland Commission to overhauling the environmental policy
process at different levels, including efforts to implement the recommendations and agreements of
the Rio Earth Summit, the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), and the Millennium
Summit. The emphasis is on more top-down approaches, due in part to desires to make rapid progress
on key targets.

14 Scenario Development and Analysis