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together from diverse organizations to think creatively about the future. The scenarios were widely Module
publicized, being first published in 1992 in the South African newspapers, The Weekly Mail and The
Guardian Weekly. The scenarios were reprinted in Deeper News, published by the Global Business 6
Network (http://www.gbn.org) with an introduction by Adam Kahane, who facilitated the scenario
process.

The participants agreed on four scenarios that they believed to be plausible and relevant:

? Ostrich – in which a negotiated settlement to the crisis in South Africa is not achieved, and the Abu Dhabi, UAE
country’s government continues to be non-representative;
? Lame Duck – in which a settlement is achieved, but the transition to a new system is slow and
indecisive;

? Icarus – in which transition is rapid, but the new government unwisely pursues unsustainable,
populist economic policies; and

? Flight of the Flamingos – in which the government’s policies are sustainable, and the country takes
a path of inclusive growth and democracy.

Figure 2 The Mont Fleur scenarios

Are the government's YES
policies sustainable? Flight of the Flamingos
inclusive
NO democracy and
Is the transition rapid YES
and decisive? growth

Is the a settlement YES NO
negotiated?
NO
Current Lcarus
negotiations? Macro economic
Larne Duck population
Incapacitated
government
Ostrich
(Non representative
government)

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 11