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Scenarios support informed action by providing insights into the scope of the possible. They also can Module
illustrate the role of human activities in shaping the future, and the links among issues. In the process
of helping to clarify possible future developments and their effects, scenarios often are a source of 6
inspiration for creative ideas.

Scenarios can be used for multiple purposes, including to:

? aid in recognition of “weak signals” of change;
? avoid being caught off guard – “live the future in advance;” Abu Dhabi, UAE

? challenge “mental maps;”

? understand the world better, and make better decisions;
? raise awareness;

? test strategies for robustness using “what if” questions;

? provide a common language; and
? stimulate discussion and creative thinking.

The ultimate aim, in most cases, is to:
? provide better policy or decision support; and

? stimulate engagement in the process of change.

EXERCISE

In groups of 3-4 persons, discuss the following questions for five minutes. Be prepared to
discuss your key points in plenary.

1. Are you familiar with scenarios that have been developed in the past by other groups? If
so, describe those scenarios. What do you find interesting about them?

2. What do you think are the most important reasons for developing scenarios?

IEA Training Manual Workshop for the National Reporting Toolkit (NRT) 9