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Overview

This module will help you develop scenarios and analyse them, either in terms of

the impact they would have on existing policies, or the kinds of policies that would
Module
6 be needed in order for a particular scenario to unfold. The module provides the
basis for an entire process for developing and analysing scenarios.

A scenario is not a prediction of what the future will be. Rather it is a description of

how the future might unfold. Scenarios explore the possible, not just the probable,
and challenge users to think beyond conventional wisdom. They support informed
action by providing insights into the scope of the possible. They also can illustrate
the role of human activities in shaping the future, and the links among issues, such
as consumption patterns, environmental change and human impacts. In this way,
they make use of the general DPSIR framework.

Scenarios were first used formally after World War II as a method for war game
analysis. Their value was quickly recognized, and the use of scenarios for a number
of other strategic planning applications developed. Today, scenario development
is used in a wide variety of different contexts, ranging from political decision
making to business planning, and from global environmental assessments to local
community management.

There are hundreds of examples of scenarios developed during the last 30 years
or so. A small number of examples are selected here to illustrate the range of
scenarios that have been developed, from specific country/regional exercises to
global visions of the future, covering a range of time frames from 10 to 100
years. The illustrations are the Mont Fleur scenarios for South Africa, the GCC

and the World Scenarios, the Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3 and GEO-4)
scenarios, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and
Environment Outlook for the Arab Region (EOAR) scenarios.

A range of processes has been used to produce scenarios. We can distinguish

among these according to three overarching themes: project goal, process design

4 Scenario Development and Analysis