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Module 2 What is a scenario?
6 Scenarios are descriptions of journeys to possible futures. They reflect different assumptions about how

current trends will unfold, how critical uncertainties will play out and what new factors will come into
play. (UNEP 2002)

9-12 December, 2013 futures, and explore the differing outcomes that might result if basic assumptions are changed. (UNEP
It is now generally accepted that scenarios do not predict. Rather, they paint pictures of possible

2002)

The future cannot be predicted because of ignorance, surprise and volition. Our information on
the current state of the global system is incomplete, as is our knowledge about many of the drivers
of change. Even if precise information were available, we know that complex systems exhibit
turbulent behaviour, extreme sensitivity to initial conditions and branching behaviours at critical
thresholds, all of which make prediction impossible. Furthermore, the future is unknowable because

it is subject to human choices that have not yet been made. In the face of such indeterminacy,
scenario analysis offers a means of exploring a variety of long-range alternatives, knowing that the
uncertainty about the future increases with distance from the present (see, for example, Raskin
and others 2002).

A scenario, as we use the term here, is not a prediction of what the future
will be. Rather it is a description about how the future might unfold, subject
to underlying assumptions about key social and environmental processes
and key choices at the individual and societal scale. Scenarios explore the
possible, not just the probable, and challenge their users to think beyond
conventional wisdom.

Scenarios are carefully created stories about the future. They include an interpretation of the present,
a vision of the future and an internally consistent account of the path from the present to various
futures. They can be applied to any geographic or temporal scale, but tend to be more useful vis à vis

other methods of considering the future as time horizons increase. They can include both qualitative
and quantitative representations, and can be developed by very participatory or more “expert-driven”
processes. Scenarios explore not only the implications if particular developments come to pass, but also
what paths might lead us to particular outcomes, be they desirable or not. Perhaps most importantly,
insights they provide are relevant to decisions being made today.

8 Scenario Development and Analysis