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Module 3 A very short history of scenario development
6 Formal scenarios were first used after World War II as a method for war game analysis (van der Heijden

1996). Their value was quickly recognized by Herman Kahn and others who advanced use of scenarios
for other strategic planning applications (Kahn and Weiner 1967). The scenario approach was refined at
Royal Dutch/Shell by Pierre Wack in the 1970s and 1980s, during which time Shell became a leader in
9-12 December, 2013 Today, scenario development is used in a wide variety of contexts ranging from political decision making
using scenarios for business planning. Their approach is described in detail in Shell International (2003).

(e.g., Kahane 1992 and Kahane 1998) to business planning (e.g., Wack 1985 and Schwartz 1996) and

from global environmental assessments (e.g., Gallopin and others 1997, Cosgrove and Rijsberman 2000,
Nakicenovic and Swart 2000, and van Notten and others 2003) to local community management
(Peterson and others 2003). In 2002, the Global Scenario Group published a path-breaking set of
scenarios that spurred the debate on the challenges of sustainability (Raskin and others 2002).

Rothman (2008) provides a far-reaching review of scenario development from the areas of environment
and sustainable development, including a synthesis of other reviews, and a catalogue of scenarios at the
global and sub-global levels. Guidelines for production of scenarios also are available on the Internet
(e.g., http://scenariosforsustainability.org; http://www.beesuccessful.com).

4 Examples of scenario exercises

Numerous scenarios have been developed that include an emphasis on issues of relevance for

sustainable development. These cover a range of spatial and temporal scales, as well as the scope of
issues addressed. We highlight three general categories, focusing on prototypical cases, while noting
other similar exercises. While the categories are primarily defined by spatial and temporal scale, the
chosen scenarios also differ in terms of their purpose, political context and the manner in which they
have been developed, particularly the degree of stakeholder participation.

4.1 Short-term country scenarios - Mont Fleur
The Mont Fleur scenario exercise was carried out in South Africa in 1991-92. The purpose of the

exercise was to stimulate debate about how to shape policy over the next 10 years in the country. It
brought together a diverse group of 22 prominent South Africans from across the political spectrum
(including politicians, activists, academics and business people) to develop and disseminate a set of
stories about what might happen in their country during this period. Its innovativeness and importance
stemmed from the fact that, in the midst of a deep conflict and profound uncertainty, it brought people

10 Scenario Development and Analysis