Page 18 - Module_6_en

Module
6 continued with the baseline and variant approach, but shifted focus towards more region-

specific analyses of alternative policies. Each region considered a specific issue, for example
freshwater in West Asia, urban air quality in Asia and the Pacific, and forests in Latin America
and the Caribbean. A six-step methodology was followed in these studies and described in
9-12 December, 2013 At least two other studies have produced scenarios in recent years that are similar to
a technical report (UNEP/RIVM 1999).

those in GEO-3 in terms of their spatial and temporal scope. The scenarios of the Global
Scenarios Group (Raskin and others 2002) represented the starting point for the GEO-3
and GEO-4 scenarios. As part of the World Water Vision exercise, three scenarios were
developed focusing on issues surrounding freshwater availability (Cosgrove and Rijsberman
2000). Finally, a set of four scenarios was developed as part of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment (MA 2005b).

BOX 3 Environment Outlook for the Arab Region (EOAR) scenarios

Different development paths in the Arab region rely on current Social, Technological,
Economic, Environmental, and Political (STEEP) trends and their impact on the environment
and human well-being.

What lies ahead for the natural environment and human well-being in the Arab Region?
What are the main driving forces that will shape the future? Which of the current social,
economic, and environmental trends will continue and which will see a dramatic shift? What
are the impacts of these changes on the environment and human well-being? What role can
humans play in shaping the future?

All these questions are addressed through four scenarios exploring different policy approaches
and societal choices. These are termed Markets First, Policy First (Reform), Security First
(Devolution/decadence), and Sustainability First (Renaissance).

Markets First
Under this scenario, development in Arab Countries is dominated by market forces and
market mechanisms (demand and supply of goods and services); the slogan of “economic

16 Scenario Development and Analysis