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Module BOX 6 Climate change impacts in the Arab region as cited in national reports

Tunisia: By 2030, the following impacts are projected:
? A 1.1 ° C average increase in temperature
? ? Extremity of drought events and a 28% reduction in water resources
9-12 December, 2013 Arab Republic of Egypt: Potential impacts of climate change:
Loss of about 20% of the agricultural land and 50% of the un-irrigated forests in the
south .

?
A substantial decline in major crop yields (wheat and maize)

of some ecosystems as a result of climate change
A potential sea level rise of 0.5-1 m during the next hundred years will lead to the
? ? An erosion in the Delta shores , seawater intrusion into freshwater and the degradation
drowning of 30% of the coastal areas in Alexandria and subsequent economic damage
including the following:

? At least two million people will be forced to leave their homes,
? The loss of 195,000 jobs,
? The absence of any remedial measures will lead to an economic loss estimated at about
35 billion U.S. dollars and the most affected sectors will be agriculture, industry and
tourism respectively.

Republic of Lebanon: Potential impacts of climate change:
? The high temperature will lead to the dislocation of plant communities in the mountainous
areas and the migration of species to other higher places,

? Decrease in rainfall rate and the inundation of some coastal areas and small islands.

Kingdom of Morocco: By 2020, the following impacts are projected:
? A 0.6 -1.1 ° C rise in temperature

? A 4% reduction in the precipitation rate and an increase in drought frequency and
severity which will lead to a 15% decrease in water resources.
? A 50% decline in agricultural production in years of drought and a 10% reduction in
normal rainfall years,

? A 7-12% increase in irrigation allocations

42 Volume Two - Themes
Vulnerability and Impact assessments for Adaption to Climate Change (VIA Module)