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In general, it is challenging to gather information for a comprehensive assessment of future climate Module
change impacts relevant to specific area and specific impacts, such as on water, soil, yields and migration
from readily available data portals and published documents. Some specific impacts, such as changes in
the characteristics of water supplies or impacts on certain crops can be modeled using outputs from
climate change scenarios (key impacts by continents are presented in Table 3). Relevant projections

on other impacts, such as impacts on biodiversity, fish population, changes in some disease occurrence
and extreme weather events, may not be possible to generate from climate models and resources
available for most climate and environmental assessments, and therefore other methods must be used
to estimate the relevant impacts. These methods include literature reviews, examining historical trends
and impacts of current climate variability on current resource bases such as biodiversity, population of Abu Dhabi, UAE
fish, water and soil, extreme weather events. An example of a comparison of consequences of current
impacts of climate variability and future projections is presented in Table 4.

Table 3 Illustrative regional impacts of climate change

Africa

? Agricultural production, including access to food, will be severely compromised and the area suitable for
agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along margins of semi-arid and
arid areas, are expected to decrease.
? By 2020, crop yields from rain-fed agriculture may be reduced substantially.
? By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due
to climate change. By 2050, between 350 and 600 million people are projected to be at risk of water
stress. There will be a significant increase in the number of people experiencing water stress in northern
and southern Africa.
? By 2050, production of many crops in Egypt will be reduced by up to 11 per cent for rice and by 28 per
cent for soybeans.
? Sea-level rise will have significant impacts on coastal areas. By 2050, in Guinea, between 130 and 235 km2
of rice fields (17 per cent and 30 per cent of existing rice field area) could be lost as a result of permanent
flooding due to sea-level rise.
? By 2050, a large part of the western Sahel and much of southern-central Africa are likely to become
unsuitable for malaria transmission. Meanwhile, previously malaria-free highland areas in Ethiopia, Kenya,
Rwanda and Burundi could experience modest incursions of malaria.

Asia and Central Asia

? By 2020, an additional 49 million people are projected to be at risk of hunger. Some projections suggest a
7 per cent to 14 per cent increase in risk of hunger.

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