Page 36 - Module_9_en

Module Figure 9 Linking experienced and future weather-related and climate events

HUMAN SOCIETY HUMAN SOCIETY
DRIVERS DRIVERS
Indirect influence Indirect influence
PRESSURES through human developmnet IMPACTS PRESSURES through human developmnet IMPACTS
Human well-being
Human well-being
Direct influence Direct influence
Step 1
through human RESPONSES Step 3 Economic, Environmental through human RESPONSES Step 3 Economic, Environmental
Step 1
interventions
interventions
9-12 December, 2013 Human influences Step 1 STATE and TRENDS Step 1 Human influences Step 1 STATE and TRENDS Step 1
Step 2
Step 2
Sectors
Mitigation and
Sectors
Mitigation and
adaptation
adaptation
social
services
social
services
goods
goods
and
and
services
services
Natural processes
Natural processes
Water, land, atmosphere,
Water, land, atmosphere,
biodiversity
biodiversity
ENVIRONMENT
ENVIRONMENT
2000
2020
2030
2010
2040
2050
Current: climate and climate variability, Future: projected climate change, needed
capacity and vulnerability capacities, future vulnerability
To investigate impacts of future climate change the following questions could provide
guidance:
? What are the changes in climatic variables estimated by different climate model
simulations?
? What are the estimated impacts of changing climatic variables on a resource-base that
is relevant for the area?
? What are the potential consequences of estimated impacts that could be relevant in
designing future development activities, coping and adaptation capacities and strategies?
Developing projections of future climate change consists of two steps:
1. Identifying scenarios of potential levels of GHGs based on projections of future socio-economic
development, so-called global emission scenarios based on the Special Report on Emission
Scenarios published in 2000 (Nakicenovic, et al., 2000), and
2. Using the estimated levels of GHGs corresponding to these future scenarios as the basis for
simulations using general circulation models (GCMs), which calculate the interrelationship of the
elements of the earth system and thereby project future climate trends. Regional climate models
(RCMs) are based on the results of the GCM, and project the climate in more precise geographical
detail (Kropp and Scholze, 2009).

34 Volume Two - Themes
Vulnerability and Impact assessments for Adaption to Climate Change (VIA Module)