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Table 2: Key steps and uncertainties when projecting climate change
Key steps Major outcomes Major uncertainties and how to address them
Impacts: Flooding, ? Impact models Different regionalization techniques (described in the next section)
food supply can give different local projections, even when based on the same
GCM projection; this can be addressed by using more RCMs or
statistical downscaling for different GCMs
9-12 December, 2013 Figure Examples of presenting projecting of climatic variables while addressing
Source: Jones, et al., 2004
uncertainties
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? The maps below indicate that an outcome is unlikely to happen if two or fewer models
projected that outcome (white areas); likely to happen if 3-4 models projected it (light
grey areas); and very likely to happen if 5–7 models projected it (dark grey areas). For
example, the likelihood that water flows will increase is regarded as unlikely by the
models except for the South, where 5–7 models are projecting increases (left map).
Source: INGC, 2009
? Example of temperature projections for Southern Europe
Source: Jones, et al., 2004
36 Volume Two - Themes
Vulnerability and Impact assessments for Adaption to Climate Change (VIA Module)
