Page 42 - Module_9_en

Module Gathering projections of climatic variables

Basic climatic variables (minimum and maximum daily temperature, maximum and minimum rainfall,
evapotranspiration, sunshine duration, etc.), more elaborate indicators (length of the growing season,

heat wave duration index, etc.) and complex indices (level of satisfaction of different crops water needs)
allow one to identify short- and medium-term thresholds. More complex indices and indicators require
significant modelling efforts, resources and expertise. Many impact assessments of future climate change
9-12 December, 2013 data sets on agriculture, forestry and other sectors are identified (Tables 1 and 3). Simple climate data
often use simple data and, based on consultation with stakeholders, the consequences of these simple

include for example:

Precipitation
?
Mean annual precipitation
?
Monthly, seasonal (for example, DJF stands for average precipitation from December until February)
?
and daily precipitation rates
? Runoff

? Maximum 5-day precipitation
? Consecutive dry days (for example, 7 days)
? Temperature

? Mean annual temperature
? Maximum temperature (monthly)

? Minimum temperature (monthly)
? Sea surface temperature

? Frost days

When climate data is insufficient for the desired area, one may consult the regional and global
databases to obtain at least monthly averages for most climate parameters. See, for example: IPCC

Data Distribution Centre, http://www.ipcc-data.org and Climate Forecasting and Monitoring database,
http://iri.columbia.edu (forecasts).

Particular attention should be given to sectoral, national and regional studies, as these can provide
the data needed to assess critical thresholds and specific tipping points. For instance, data on the

recommended daily calorie intake, duration of the growing season, and so forth are often available in
poverty or food security reports. Furthermore, many regional and national reports on most climate
hazards and events exist. See, for example: USAID Famine Early Warning System Network, http://
www.fews.net ; FAO Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture, http://
www.fao.org/giews/english/index.htm.

40 Volume Two - Themes
Vulnerability and Impact assessments for Adaption to Climate Change (VIA Module)