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Module
Table 3: Illustrative regional impacts of climate change

Asia and Central Asia
? Significant regional differences in wheat, maize and rice yields are expected. Yields might increase by up to
20 per cent in East and Southeast Asia and decrease by up to 30 per cent in Central and South Asia.
? Climate change is likely to lead to an increase in agricultural areas needing irrigation, as usable water
resources decline. A 1?C increase in temperature is projected to result in a 10 per cent increase in
9-12 December, 2013 ? By 2050, in Bangladesh, rice and wheat production might drop by 8 per cent and 32 per cent respectively.
agricultural irrigation demand in arid and semi-arid regions of East Asia.
? By 2050, an additional 132 million people are projected to be at risk of hunger.

? By 2050, freshwater availability in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia, particularly in large river basins, is
likely to decrease as a result of climate change, while demand is likely to increase with population growth
and rising standards of living. This could adversely affect more than a billion people in Asia by the 2050s.
? Climate change-related melting of glaciers could affect a half billion people in the Himalaya-Hindu-Kush
region and a quarter billion people in China who depend on glacial melt for their water supplies.
? Coastal areas, especially heavily populated mega delta regions in South, East and Southeast Asia, will be at
greatest risk of increased flooding from the sea and, in some mega deltas, flooding from rivers.
? By 2050, more than one million people may be directly affected by sea-level rise in each of the Ganges-
Brahmaputra-Meghna deltas in Bangladesh and the Mekong delta in Viet Nam.
? Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts
are expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia according to projected changes in the hydrological
cycle.
? Climate change is projected to compound the pressures on natural resources and the environment
associated with rapid urbanization, industrialization and economic development. Up to 50 per cent of Asia’s
total biodiversity is at risk.
? 24 per cent to 30 per cent of coral reefs may be lost in the next 10 to 30 years.

Latin America and the Caribbean
? By 2020, generalized reductions in rice yields and increases in soybean yields (with CO2 effects
considered) are projected.
? By 2020, an additional 5 million people could be at risk of hunger (CO2 effects not considered).
? Greater heat stress and dryer soils may reduce yields to a third in tropical and subtropical areas where
harvests are near maximum heat tolerance.
? By 2020, in temperate areas such as the Argentinean and Uruguayan pampas, pasture productivity could
increase by between 1 per cent and 9 per cent.
? By 2020, net increases in the number of people experiencing water stress are likely to be between 7 and
77 million.
? Over the next decades, Andean inter-tropical glaciers are projected to disappear, affecting water availability
and hydropower generation.
? In Peru, the retreat of glaciers will affect the availability of water supply for 60 per cent of the population.
? In terms of health impacts, main concerns are heat stress, malaria, dengue fever, cholera and other water-
borne diseases.

38 Volume Two - Themes
Vulnerability and Impact assessments for Adaption to Climate Change (VIA Module)